I recently had the opportunity to present my research at Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies, as a culmination of my year there as a Visiting Researcher. I have posted the transcript and slides on the James Martin Institute website.
It was a useful talk, though I am not able to give too much empirical data yet as my data collection and analysis is still ongoing. Check back in a year!
I'm generally not one to follow in the ins and outs of politics too closely, but the latest news from Ukraine has me interested, in part because I have a few friends who are living through it right now.
President Yushchenko has tried to dissolve Parliament, but the Parliament, led by opposition leader Prime Minister Yanukovych, is calling it unconstitutional and refusing to comply. You can get a quick background from the BBC's Q&A page on the issue.
Some points that interest me include:
- The BBC does not think that there will be mass riots like the Orange Revolution in 2004, mainly because
Mass street protests occurred in 2004, as a result of years of frustration bottled up during the presidency of Leonid Kuchma. As the protests gathered strength, euphoria swept through the pro-Western part of the population that was most hungry for change. These same people are now mostly deeply disillusioned by the last two years of political compromises and internal bickering.
Mr Yanukovych's supporters have no track record of mass street protests, and are hampered by the fact that their power base is in the east of the country rather than in the capital, Kiev.
- Both parties apparently recognise the authority of the law and are referring the question of jurisdiction to the courts
- While clearly a power struggle between two men, the case also highlights the value in incorporating public opinion into decision-making.
So I guess my question is, is this political system 'functioning'? It is a purposefully vague question. It could be 'functioning' in the sense that it seems unlikely at this stage to result in a full collapse of the state or hostile actions on the part of either party or the public. It could not be 'functioning' in the sense that the economy's need for a sustained form of government (in whatever form) is not being met.
I think what the Ukraine is experiencing is the usual hiccups that come with working out a form of governance that will suit the engrained institutions and the personalities of the country. I will continue to watch this country with interest, and will see if I can get some inside perspective's to comment on this post.
(Photo courtesy of the BBC)